What are the current odds for Will the Democrats hold 56 or more senate seats in the next Congress??

Manifold Markets prices No at 90% as of October 27, 2026.

Will the Democrats hold 56 or more senate seats in the next Congress?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 90%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Stale

Oct 22, 26, 2:54 AM UTCFeb 2, 27, 12:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves to YES if the Democratic Party holds 56 or more seats in the senate of the United States Congress on February 1, 2027.

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
Source of truth: The official composition (identity and partisan membership) published by the United States Congress (accessible via Congress.gov or official chamber directories at Senate.gov) as of February 1, 2027.
Caucusing members: In accordance with standard Congressional counting conventions, independent members who officially caucus with the Democratic Party (e.g., independent senators who organize with the Democratic caucus) are counted toward the Democratic seat total.
Timing & revisions: Partisan composition will be measured as of February 1, 2027.
Any vacancies, special elections, or party switches occurring or officially recorded after February 1, 2027, will not be factored into resolution.