KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 75%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.2K
Liquidity
$172.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
74.0% / 75.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Dec 12, 25, 3:00 PMFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes75%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 75% | 0pt | $1.2K | $172.1K | 16 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket80% match · verified | Low | 75% | 0pt | $0 | $13.1K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Blue wave in 2026?
4mo
75%
25%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$52.9K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETRules
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
- Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
- All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$1.2kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
- Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
- All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.