KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 82%+1.0pt
Market quality
83 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$13.2K
Liquidity
$385.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
82.0% / 84.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Dec 12, 25, 3:00 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
- If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS.
- For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
- All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
- This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 82%. Quotes span about 3 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 82% · 2 venues · 3 pt venue spread
Open markets
Politics
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.6%
- Gavin Newsom13.5%
+45 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Blue wave in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 82% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Blue wave in 2026? resolve?
- Blue wave in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.
- How is Blue wave in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Blue wave in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.