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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Blue wave in 2026?
Blue wave in 2026?

Blue wave in 2026?

2.0% (24h)One-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection7mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 68%-2.0%
Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$43.4

Liquidity

$1.4K

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

71.0% / 73.0%

Spread

2.8%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Dec 12, 25, 3:00 PMFeb 1, 27, 3:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes68%

PolymarketAlso available on Polymarket

Blue wave in 2026?

Blue wave in 2026?

5mo
Yes
Yes
75%
No
No
25%
49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$49.7K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET

Rules

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS.
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
  • All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,636.00+0.75%EthereumETH$1,641.70+0.07%SolanaSOL$65.48+1.38%DogecoinDOGE$0.0848+0.79%XRPXRP$1.11-0.45%BNBBNB$598.84+1.07%

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Rules

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out.
  • If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No.
  • Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS.
  • For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified).
  • All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.