Blue wave in 2026?

YearlyPolitics US Politics Election5mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 75%

Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$14.6K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

74.0% / 76.0%

Spread

2.7%

Tight spread

7d Change

+4.5%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jan 14, 26, 12:53 AMNov 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes75%

Stake (USDT)

Also available on Kalshi

Blue wave in 2026?

2.0%7mo

Yes

-2.0%68%

No

32%

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$2.5K

24h Vol$43.4

KALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Will Tucker Carlson be arrested in 2026?

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Blue wave in 2026?

YearlyPolitics US Politics Election5mo

PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee

Current implied probability

Yes 75%

Market quality

49 / 100

Low quality

24h Volume

$0

Liquidity

$14.6K

Medium liquidity

Bid / Ask

74.0% / 76.0%

Spread

2.7%

Tight spread

7d Change

+4.5%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jan 14, 26, 12:53 AMNov 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes75%

Stake (USDT)

Also available on Kalshi

Blue wave in 2026?

2.0%7mo

Yes

-2.0%68%

No

32%

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$2.5K

24h Vol$43.4

KALSHI

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:

- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

Related Markets

Which bills will become law in 2026?

$56.9

FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years): 29%

KALSHI

How many House Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?

$3.3

7 or more: 13%

KALSHI

Which office will AOC announce a run for by the end of 2027?

$0