PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 84.2%+1.5pt
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$14.9
Liquidity
$12.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
84.0% / 85.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
11
7d Change
+7.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 12:53 AM UTCJan 5, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- - Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
- The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 85%.
CoinRithm reference 85% · 2 venues · 0 pt venue spread
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Blue wave in 2026??
- Polymarket prices Yes at 84% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Blue wave in 2026? resolve?
- Blue wave in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 5, 2027.
- How is Blue wave in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Where else is Blue wave in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi.