PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 74.3%
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$12.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
74.0% / 75.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jan 14, 26, 12:53 AMNov 30, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes75%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall80% match · verified | High | 75% | 0pt | $4.3K | $176K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
| PolymarketThis page | Low | 75% | 0pt | $0 | $12.4K | 18 minutes ago |
Also available on Kalshi
Blue wave in 2026?
6mo
75%
25%
82 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$315K
24h Vol$4.3K
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$58Jul 220d of dataJul 24
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- - Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House - Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf