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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

One-OffPoliticsEurope6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 22%
Market quality

72 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$129.3

Liquidity

$33.6K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

21.0% / 22.0%

Spread

4.8%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Nov 5, 25, 7:40 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes22%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
  • The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
  • The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.