Current implied probability
December 31, 2027 25%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31, 2027 25%Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19.1K
Liquidity
$123.4K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 7:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
September 30, 2026Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Friedrich Merz cease to be chancellor before 14th October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.