KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningNo trading activity
Data as of Sep 17, 2026, 8:25 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Before Oct 1, 2026 0%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
24 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownSpread
15.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 4:00 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWill Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRules
If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Government of GermanyGerman BundestagOffice of the Federal Chancellor of GermanyReutersAssociated Press
- An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office.
- Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official.
- The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
- "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal.
- Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor??
- Kalshi prices Before Oct 1, 2026 at 0% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? resolve?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Friedrich Merz has either officially announced their intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or has actually left as Chancellor of Germany the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.