Current community forecast
Other 22.6%+10.1ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+10.1 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 4:58 PM UTCOct 21, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiRules
Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.
- Resolves N/A if Merz remains until then.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+11.0pt80.2%
- Yes-11.0pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $17.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+2.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $217.8M
- 24h Vol
- $780.3K
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-3.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Total Vol
- $31.8M
- 24h Vol
- $741.9K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.6pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 more outcomes
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 23% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? resolve?
- Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? is scheduled to resolve on October 21, 2029.
- How is Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.