Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
6.5% (24h)BitcoinOne-OffCrime & JusticeRussia / UkraineChinaEuropeUS PoliticsMiddle EastGeopoliticsCryptoPolitics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 77%+0.1%
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2K
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
76.0% / 77.0%
Spread
1.3%
Tight spread7d Change
+8.0%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 6, 26, 10:48 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes77%
Compare venues· Yes
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | High | 77% | — | $2K | $23.9K | 13 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets79% match · auto | — | 85% | — | — | — | 39 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Nothing Ever Happens 2026
5mo
85%
15%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+)
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$2.0kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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Bitcoin nears seven-week high as stocks ignore Iran strikes, Trump 10% tariff plansCointelegraphRules
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+)
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
- The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf