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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Bitcoin
  3. Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

0.5% (24h)BitcoinOne-Off6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 72%+0.0%
Market quality

91 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$1.2K

Liquidity

$34.9K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

71.0% / 72.0%

Spread

1.4%

Tight spread
7d Change

+4.0%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Jan 6, 26, 10:49 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes72%

Manifold MarketsAlso available on Manifold Markets

Manifold Markets

Nothing Ever Happens 2026

6mo
Manifold Markets
Yes
70%
Manifold Markets
No
30%
Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary
Total Vol$598.1
24h Vol$3.1
Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Rules

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

Polymarket
  • - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+)
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
  • The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf

Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,634.59+2.05%ChainlinkLINK$7.77+0.91%EthereumETH$1,649.42+1.21%SolanaSOL$65.09+1.46%BNBBNB$594.88+1.46%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.56%

Related News

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Rules

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

Polymarket
  • - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+)
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
  • The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf