Nothing Ever Happens 2026
BitcoinYearlySociety & CultureUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastRussia / UkraineChinaEuropeCrime & JusticePolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 84%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 26, 1:19 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Linked to https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-2026
- This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+)
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
