PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNothing 96%+0.0pt
Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$699
Liquidity
$10.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
95.2% / 97.8%
Spread
2.6 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 8:15 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Nothing97%
Volume trend
$699Jul 221d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
- This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
- The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto