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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Bitcoin
  3. Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto

BitcoinOne-OffCrypto6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Nothing
Nothing 96%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$25

Liquidity

$7.4K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

92.0% / 100.0%

Spread

8.7%

Wide spread
7d Change

+2.5%

Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Feb 11, 26, 8:15 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Nothing96%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

Polymarket
  • - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
  • Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
  • This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
  • The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,559.90+1.92%ChainlinkLINK$7.75+0.51%EthereumETH$1,646.97+1.11%SolanaSOL$64.87+1.28%XRPXRP$1.11+0.11%BNBBNB$594.30+1.44%

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

Polymarket
  • - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
  • Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
  • This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
  • The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto