PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Nothing 97%-0.1pt
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$46
Liquidity
$15K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
96.3% / 97.7%
Spread
1.4 pt
Tight spreadComments
4
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Feb 11, 26, 8:15 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Nothing Ever Happens: Obama
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens 2026
Manifold MarketsNothing ever happens 2026: Polymarket Edition
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?
Manifold MarketsWill Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?
KalshiRules
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
- Satoshi moves any Bitcoin
- This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame.
- The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
Open markets
BitcoinKALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,396.16 target
- Yes74%
- No26%
- Total Vol
- $2M
- 24h Vol
- $838.2K
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- 72,000+0.3pt100%
- 74,000+0.9pt100%
- 76,000+3.4pt97%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $884.9K
- 24h Vol
- $717.3K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
- $73,000 or above-1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $357.1K
- 24h Vol
- $349.4K
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- ↓ 60,000+10.4pt100%
- ↑ 80,000+11.9pt100%
- ↑ 75,000+30.4pt100%
+43 more outcomes
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 11?
- Bitcoin all time high by which date?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- How high will BTC get in September?
- Bitcoin Up or Down on September 10?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 14?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 15?
- Bitcoin price on September 10?
- BTC price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto?
- Polymarket prices Nothing at 97% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto resolve?
- Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: