Russia / Ukraine

Putin out as President of Russia by which date?

11mo

June 30, 2027

+1.0%17%

December

September 30,

+0.8%4%

+2 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$18.7M

24h Vol$251.4K

POLYMARKET

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

0.2%1mo

United Russia (ER)

56%

New People (NL)

+3.4%36%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

-0.2%4%

+31 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$16.1M

24h Vol$138.7K

POLYMARKET

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

2mo

Yulia Navalnaya

11%

UNRWA

-1.6%7%

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

+68 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceYulia Navalnaya7%· ±4 pts

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$22.9M

24h Vol$15.7K

POLYMARKET

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?

3.5%5mo

December 31

-0.5%36%

October 31

-3.5%19%

August 31

-1.0%8%

+2 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$5.7M

24h Vol$42.6K

POLYMARKET

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by which date?

5mo

December 31

10%

June 30

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$3.5M

24h Vol$20.9K

POLYMARKET

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

0.1%5mo

No meeting before 2027

+1.0%91%

Switzerland

-0.3%3%

Turkey

+0.9%2%

+27 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.8M

24h Vol$6.6K

POLYMARKET

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?

0.5%5mo

December 31

25%

October 31

+0.5%13%

May 31

+1 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$907K

24h Vol$5.3K

POLYMARKET

NATO x Russia military clash by which date?

4.0%5mo

December 31

+4.0%30%

December 31, 2025

-0.1%0%

March 31

-0.4%0%

+1 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$3.2M

24h Vol$58.1K

POLYMARKET

Which leaders will leave office in 2026?

1.0%5mo

Keir Starmer

100%

Gustavo Petro

99%

Aleksandar Vučić

94%

+34 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.8M

24h Vol$1.4K

KALSHI

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

1mo

United Russia (ER)

+0.1%97%

New People (NL)

-0.2%1%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

+31 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.8M

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?

4.0%5mo

December 31

+4.0%48%

September 30

-0.5%11%

July 31

+0.2%1%

+1 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$977.9K

24h Vol$9.5K

POLYMARKET

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

5mo

92%

Yes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.8M

24h Vol$1.5K

POLYMARKET

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

3.0%5mo

Dopropillia

+2.0%67%

Druzkhivka

+3.0%32%

Kramatorsk

20%

+5 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$602.5K

24h Vol$5.6K

POLYMARKET

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?

2.5%1mo

August 31

-9.5%62%

July 31

-2.5%14%

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$281.7K

24h Vol$8.3K

POLYMARKET

European military action against Iran by which date?

0.6%1mo

August 31

-4.0%6%

July 31

-0.6%3%

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$155.8K

24h Vol$16.3K

POLYMARKET

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

1.0%5mo

No meeting by December 31

+0.5%70%

China

-1.0%16%

Russia

+0.1%4%

+12 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$189.5K

24h Vol$4.5K

POLYMARKET

Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?

Before Jan 20, 2029

37%

Before 2027

-1.0%13%

Before July 2026

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$381.8K

24h Vol$2.6K

KALSHI

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?

1.0%5mo

December 31

-1.0%61%

September 30

41%

June 30

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$216.7K

24h Vol$2.4K

POLYMARKET

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

1.9%1mo

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

73%

New People (NL)

+0.5%18%

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

+1.9%7%

+31 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$115.7K

24h Vol$1.9K

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Lyman by which date?

3.5%5mo

December 31

-3.5%51%

September 30

13%

May 31

-0.7%0%

+7 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$2.8M

24h Vol$4K

POLYMARKET

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by which date?

0.5%5mo

December

+0.5%12%

August

-0.1%2%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$715.1K

24h Vol$3.7K

POLYMARKET

Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by which date?

0.1%5mo

December 31

+3.0%20%

August 31

+0.1%3%

November 30

-0.1%0%

+3 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$897.3K

24h Vol$1.7K

POLYMARKET

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

5mo

92%

Yes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$349K

24h Vol$3.8K

POLYMARKET

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?

0.5%1mo

94%

Yes

+0.0%6%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$183.1K

24h Vol$2.8K

POLYMARKET

Chechnya Gubernatorial Election Winner

1.1%1mo

Ramzan Kadyrov

-1.1%96%

Person A

50%

Person B

50%

+32 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$7.1K

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

5mo

77%

Yes

24%

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.5M

24h Vol$965

POLYMARKET

Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by which date?

1.5%5mo

December 31

-0.5%76%

September 30

+1.5%48%

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$21.9K

24h Vol$3.3K

POLYMARKET

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by which date?

0.3%5mo

2026

+0.3%5%

2025

-0.1%0%

June 30, 2026

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.6M

24h Vol$411.2

POLYMARKET

Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

0.3%1mo

53-56%

29%

50-53%

+0.5%19%

62%+

-0.3%13%

+4 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$33.3K

24h Vol$966.2

POLYMARKET

Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?

1.0%5mo

+0.0%88%

Yes

-0.0%13%

61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$9.9K

24h Vol$6.2K

POLYMARKET

Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

1.0%1mo

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

-0.5%45%

New People (NL)

+1.0%37%

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

-0.5%20%

+31 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$33.5K

24h Vol$621.5

POLYMARKET

Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by which date?

2.1%5d

August 31

+2.0%12%

July 31

-2.1%2%

July 17

-0.6%0%

+1 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$224K

24h Vol$3.4K

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by which date?

6.5%2mo

September 30

-6.5%59%

May 31

-1.4%0%

June 30

-4.5%0%

+3 more outcomes

77 • High qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$936.7K

24h Vol$5.5K

POLYMARKET

NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine by which date?

0.5%5mo

2026

-0.5%10%

2025

June 30, 2026

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$417.4K

24h Vol$1.3K

POLYMARKET

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

1mo

325–339

-1.0%26%

310–324

+3.7%23%

340–354

23%

+4 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$160.7K

24h Vol$565

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by which date?

5mo

December 31

+1.0%60%

September 30

38%

June 30

-0.5%0%

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$134.5K

24h Vol$1.6K

POLYMARKET

Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?

0.5%5mo

90%

Yes

+0.0%10%

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$101.2K

24h Vol$1K

POLYMARKET

Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by which date?

3.7%5mo

December 31

-29.5%31%

September 30

+3.7%8%

45 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$49.3K

24h Vol$45.7K

POLYMARKET

Bank of Russia decision in September?

3.0%1mo

No Change

-0.5%69%

Decrease

+3.0%28%

Increase

-2.3%4%

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$40K

24h Vol$1.8K

POLYMARKET

What countries will Marco Rubio visit in 2026?

5.0%5mo

Qatar

50%

Switzerland

47%

Mexico

44%

+6 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$77.3K

24h Vol$262.9

KALSHI

Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31, 2026?

0.1%1mo

98%

Yes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$39.3K

24h Vol$391.3

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by which date?

5mo

December 31

-1.0%12%

September 30

May 31

-0.5%0%

+4 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$2.2M

24h Vol$521

POLYMARKET

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

4.0%5mo

Yes

+0.0%74%

-0.0%27%

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$691.7K

24h Vol$964.2

POLYMARKET

Will Russia capture Vodianske by which date?

5.5%5mo

December 31

-21.5%47%

September 30

+5.5%20%

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$16.1K

24h Vol$1.5K

POLYMARKET

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

5mo

96%

Yes

Community forecast76 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will the NYT front-page headlines say this week? (July 27 - August 2)

14.0%7d

Trump

+7.4%97%

China / Chinese

+33.5%79%

Oil / Gas

+23.0%78%

+16 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.5K

24h Vol$4.4K

POLYMARKET

Ukraine warcasting megamarket

Will Zelensky be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

100%

Will Putin be in power 2025 Jan 1st?

100%

Will Trump be in power 2026 Jan 1st?

100%

+12 more outcomes

Community forecast356 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?

5mo

91%

Yes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$135.4K

24h Vol$572

POLYMARKET

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