PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
October 31 100%+1.9ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Liquidity
$5.4K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
4
7d Change
+61.5 pts
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 6:13 PMNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.
Open markets
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- New People (NL)-2.4pt22.8%
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+5 more outcomes
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- No+0.1pt99%
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POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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- March 31,-1.5pt33%
- December 31-3.5pt14.3%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)+4.0pt89.1%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt6.9%
- New People (NL)-2.3pt4%
+5 more outcomes
- Will Russia enter Hannivka by which date?
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- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Russia capture Toretske by which date??
- Polymarket prices October 31 at 100% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will Russia capture Toretske by which date? resolve?
- Will Russia capture Toretske by which date? is scheduled to resolve on November 1, 2026.
- How is Will Russia capture Toretske by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494901° N, 37.365342° E in Toretske, Donetsk Oblast, by the named outcome, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.