Will Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 6%-1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.1K
Liquidity
$66.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
64
7d Change
-0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
May 28, 25, 10:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Lost
Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Manifold MarketsEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
- Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
