Will Russia invade a NATO country by which date?
0.2 pts (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 6, 2026, 12:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31, · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored reference
December 31, 2%Leader of 4 outcomes
December 31, 2%Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.8K
Liquidity
$72K
High liquidityOpen interest
$274.2K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31,Spread
—
Comments
64
7d Change
-2.3 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 28, 25, 10:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
December 31, 2025Lost
June 30,Lost
Before close: 0% ·
September 30,Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
Loading top holders
Market depth · December 31,
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho wins the US presidential election in 2024? / Will Russia invade a NATO member before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
Manifold MarketsEU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by which date?
PolymarketWill Russia invade another country by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries.
- Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.