Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.7%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 16, 24, 1:30 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if at any time before 2028, Russian military forces invade a country with NATO membership.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- I do not think these words necessitate hair-splitting, as I am setting up this market in good faith and trust that people in the near future are still able to negotiate the proper meanings of e.g. 'military forces' and 'invasion' in this particular context.
- But I am happy to clarify any edge cases that people can come up with.
- If so, I will update the description accordingly.
- Some points:
