US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through which date?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
November 5 · —
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November 5 95%Leader of 6 outcomes
November 5 95%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$73.8K
Liquidity
$98.6K
High liquidityOpen interest
$53.7K
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November 5Spread
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Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 4, 26, 6:07 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
