US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
0.6 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East1mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
October 31 · —
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Stored reference
October 31 99%Leader of 26 outcomes
October 31 99%Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.3M
Liquidity
$587.9K
High liquidityOpen interest
$2.6M
Bid / Ask
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October 31Spread
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Comments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 17, 26, 3:54 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
October 12Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 15Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 16Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 17Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 18Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 22Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 24Won
Before close: 100% ·
October 28Won
Before close: 100% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · October 31
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
