PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeCurrent implied probabilityAugust 31 22%+2.0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$77.1K
Liquidity
$168.4K
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 5.0%
Spread
66.7%
Wide spread7d Change
-10.5%
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 11:23 PMAug 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
August 3122%
Large trades
$1.4k86.0%NoJAMJAMJAM4yesterday
$3.5k89.0%NoMEPPyesterday
$1.4k14.0%Yestrashpilotyesterday
$1.3k87.0%No0x6bab…0fe52d ago
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”).
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify.
- A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
- Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/).