PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 18%-9.0ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$56.5K
Liquidity
$85.4K
High liquiditySpread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
1,146
7d Change
-3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 11:23 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”).
- A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify.
- A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted).
- Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/).