KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Gustavo Petro 100%Leader of 35 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$5.3K
Liquidity
$1.1M
High liquiditySpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Dec 13, 25, 3:00 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 3:17 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:office or organization where person holds officeThe New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- An "official announcement" means a statement by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the official body governing the office that the person will be departing from the office.
- Such announcements must be reported by at least one Source Agency to be considered official.
- The announcement must not specify they are leaving in more than a year from the statement, in which case the market does not resolve to Yes.
- "Leaving office" means the person no longer holds the office in any capacity, including but not limited to: resignation (effective), termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or the expiration of their term without renewal.
- Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining the office do NOT constitute leaving office.
Prediction Source Comparison
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which leaders will leave office in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Gustavo Petro at 100% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which leaders will leave office in 2026? resolve?
- Which leaders will leave office in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Which leaders will leave office in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome has either officially announced their intention to leave as Prime Minister of Israel or has actually left Prime Minister of Israel before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Which leaders will leave office in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.