Current implied probability
2026 11%-0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$27.2
Liquidity
$15K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.9 pt
Tight spreadComments
96
7d Change
+2.1 pts
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Nov 20, 25, 12:24 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
- This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
- The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the AI bubble pop by X date? · By 12-31-2028 60%
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for AI bubble burst by which date??
- Polymarket prices 2026 at 11% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does AI bubble burst by which date? resolve?
- AI bubble burst by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is AI bubble burst by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is AI bubble burst by which date? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets.
