Current implied probability
2026 16%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$7
Liquidity
$16.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 16.9%
Spread
5.6%
Moderate spread7d Change
+0.9%
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Nov 20, 25, 12:24 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
202616%
Compare venues· 2026
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 16% | — | $7 | $16.5K | 22 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets72% match · verified | — | 47% | — | — | — | 20 hours ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
1y
46.5%
40%
33%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast72 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V.
- (ASML), Broadcom Inc.
- (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc.
- (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$7Jul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Which bubble bursts first?
$5.7AI: 17.4%
MYRIAD
MYRIADWho invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?
$1.3KChina invades Taiwan first: 11.9%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
$3.2K↑$1.1T: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
$2.2K↑$900B: 73%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by July 31?
$525.7↓$800B: 23%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which companies will be added to the Nasdaq-100 in Q3?
$78.5Anthropic: 12%
KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Coinbase Opens Payment Rails for AI Agents as Corporate Clients Accept Autonomous TransactionsBlockchain Reporter
Google Ships New Gemini Flash Models, But Pro Is Still MissingDecrypt
Google Is Building an AI Chip Just for Gemini—And Investors Already Moved On ItDecrypt
WhiteBIT Launches AI Hub: Trade, Monitor and Automate Through Your Favourite AI AssistantBlockchain Reporter
Grayscale Files S-1 for Spot Worldcoin ETFThe Defiant
CoinShares debuts Bitcoin mining ETF in Europe entranceCointelegraphRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V.
- (ASML), Broadcom Inc.
- (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc.
- (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc.