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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. ETF
  3. Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
Manifold Markets

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

ETFAI1y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
By 12-31-2025 0%
Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters

72

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 5 days ago

Stale
Oct 26, 25, 11:38 AMDec 31, 27, 10:29 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

By 6-30-20263%

Rules

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Manifold Markets
  • For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
  • More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
  • A market will resolve to Yes if
  • (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
  • is satisfied by the stated date.

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Rules

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Manifold Markets
  • For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
  • More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
  • A market will resolve to Yes if
  • (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
  • is satisfied by the stated date.