Current community forecast
By 12-31-2025 0%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
72
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleOct 26, 25, 11:38 AMDec 31, 27, 10:29 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
By 9-30-20265%
Compare venues· By 3-31-2028
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall72% match · verified | Medium | 16% | — | $7 | $16.5K | 22 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 47% | — | — | — | 20 hours ago |
Also available on Polymarket
AI bubble burst by which date?
5mo
16%
-0.1%0%
+0.1%0%
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$2.9M
24h Vol$7
POLYMARKETRules
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$70Jul 94d of dataJul 25
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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
- For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
- More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
- A market will resolve to Yes if
- (pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
- is satisfied by the stated date.