Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 90.6%
Forecasters
412
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingDec 28, 25, 5:18 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.
- This could manifest in many different ways: - a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes - a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI - private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down. - governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.
- These events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc. Other reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count.
- Feel free to ask more questions about the criteria.
- I will not trade on this market.
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion.
