Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.6%
Forecasters
404
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 28, 25, 5:18 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.
- This could manifest in many different ways: - a sudden drop of the NQINTEL or S&P500 indexes - a halt of capital expenditure and/or VC investment in AI - private AI companies (such as OAI, xAI, Anthropic, etc.) raising at substantially lower valuations than previous rounds, defaulting or shutting down. - governments / big enterprises moving down AI in their priority lists.
- These events need to be widely reported and referred to as an AI crash or similar by trusted news sources such as Bloomberg, NY Times, FT, Reuters, AP, etc. Other reasons for a stock market crash or economic slowdown (tariffs, wars, etc.) will not count.
- Feel free to ask more questions about the criteria.
- I will not trade on this market.
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Media consensus is the primary resolution criterion.
Open markets
Trade Policy
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3156%
- October 31+3.0pt31.2%
- September 30+3.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $121.2K
- 24h Vol
- $5.6K
KALSHISouth Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
- Above 2.2 million TEUs94%
- Above 2.3 million TEUs84%
- Above 2.4 million TEUs56%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $15.7K
- 24h Vol
- $5.1K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt13%
- September 30+0.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No+1.0pt75.3%
- Yes-1.0pt24.8%
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
- 24h Vol
- $1.2K
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 3154%
- September 3023%
- September 15-1.9pt3%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.5K
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/31 - 9/6)
- Above 17594%
- Above 200-1.0pt55%
- Above 225+9.0pt18%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
- Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/31 - 9/6)
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the AI bubble pop in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? resolve?
- Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the AI bubble pop in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve YES if it is widely reported that the "AI Bubble" has "bursted" or "popped" by 11:59 PM UTC Dec. 31 2026.