Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
1.0 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsLatin America3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 10%-1.0pt
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$8.3
Liquidity
$48.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Mar 17, 26, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
KalshiUS x Cuba economic deal by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?
KalshiWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketWill Miguel Díaz-Canel be leader of Cuba on January 1st 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Timesthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC
- Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
- Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement.
- A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient.
- If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 10% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? resolve?
- Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.