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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Trade Policy
  3. Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?

Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?

1.0% (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsLatin America6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027 60%-1.0%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$5.7

Liquidity

$423.2

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

57.0% / 62.0%

Spread

8.8%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 3 minutes ago

Mar 17, 26, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
Before May 1, 2026
Before May 1, 2026
0%

Selected outcome

Before Jan 1, 202760%

Rules

If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
  • Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement.
  • A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient.
  • If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
  • If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,914.99+2.63%EthereumETH$1,657.72+1.99%SolanaSOL$65.48+3.04%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.71%XRPXRP$1.12+0.82%BNBBNB$599.80+2.64%

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Rules

If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Preliminary agreements, frameworks, or agreements in principle do count as long as they are presented as a new trade-related agreement.
  • Cuba must also acknowledge the agreement.
  • A mere declaration of intent to start negotiations or "explore a trade deal" is not sufficient.
  • If the U.S. and Cuba are part of a multilateral trade agreement announced within the timeframe, it is included.
  • If the United States announces a new free trade agreement, multilateral trade agreement, trade framework, or economic cooperation arrangement with Cuba before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.