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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. US Politics
  3. Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

3.0% (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsLatin America6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 17%-0.0%
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$15.9K

Liquidity

$110.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

16.0% / 17.0%

Spread

6.3%

Moderate spread
7d Change

-4.5%

Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jan 4, 26, 8:26 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes17%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
  • The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
  • The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.