PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93.1%
Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$92.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
79
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 8:24 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by which date?
PolymarketUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by which date?
PolymarketWill Rubio visit Cuba in 2026?
PredictItWill Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
KalshiWill the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.4pt97%
- $50M+10.6pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
- $795K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $657.9K
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Total Vol
- $748.1K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.8%
- Republican Party-2.0pt15.2%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $247.6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? resolve?
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.