PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 33%-0.5%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
80 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$3.4K
Liquidity
$77K
High liquidityBid / Ask
32.0% / 33.0%
Spread
3.1%
Moderate spread7d Change
+2.0%
Market data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 8:08 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3133%
Large trades
$1.1k62.0%POLYMARKETUS strike on Cuba by December 31? — NoBrevanHoward21d ago
POLYMARKETUS strike on Cuba by December 31? — NoBrevanHoward21d ago$1.2k60.8%POLYMARKETUS strike on Cuba by December 31? — NoSardinianshepherd22d ago
POLYMARKETUS strike on Cuba by December 31? — NoSardinianshepherd22d agoVolume trend
$3.4kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
- A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.