PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 14%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.1K
Liquidity
$50.8K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
111
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jan 4, 26, 8:08 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
PolymarketEuropean military action against Iran by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Beirut by which date?
PolymarketWill the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill both the House and Senate pass a resolution to limit military action in Iran?
Manifold MarketsConfirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba in 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
- A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+2.4pt97%
- $50M+10.6pt95%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $995.5K
- 24h Vol
- $795K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $657.9K
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Total Vol
- $748.1K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.3M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.8%
- Republican Party-2.0pt15.2%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $247.6K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US military action against Cuba by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 14% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US military action against Cuba by which date? resolve?
- US military action against Cuba by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US military action against Cuba by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET.