Will the United States conduct a military strike against Cuba in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.2%
Forecasters
76
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Mar 2, 26, 9:36 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if, before Jan 1, 2027 at 00:00 Cuban local time., the United States conducts a confirmed kinetic strike on Cuban territory or military assets (air, land, naval), including but not limited to:
- Manned aircraft bombing runs
- Armed drone strikes
- Cruise missile strikes (including those launched from naval vessels or submarines)
- This market does NOT include:
- Cyber operations