Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
US PoliticsGeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle EastLatin America3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 63.2%
Forecasters
31
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 7:35 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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In 2025 the US government under Trump conducted overt military operations against seven countries; Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen.
- Will the US conduct overt military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026?
- Overt military operations are attacks by air, sea or ground conducted by Department of Defense forces.
- Covert action strikes will be counted only when conducted by DoD and later officially acknowledged by the US government.
- IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE I HAVE TO SAY THIS BUT STRIKES IN THE USA DO NOT COUNT. 🇺🇸
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026? resolve?
- Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the US Government conduct military operations against 8 or more countries in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In 2025 the US government under Trump conducted overt military operations against seven countries; Iran, Iraq, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen.