Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?
GeopoliticsOne-OffLatin America2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.1%
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16
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 26, 8:56 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if there are 5 straight days of active military operations.
- Resolves in the spirit of the question: the intent of this question is to gauge whether the conflict will escalate beyond sporadic brief (1 night) operations into a more prolonged conflict.
- Things like airstrikes, deployments of ground forces and vehicles who are firing live ammunition, raids on facilities, drone strikes, etc, would count.
- Things like patrols of boats within Venezuelan waters, presence of a special forces team that isn't actively engaged in live fire, or spy planes flying overhead would NOT count.
- Please do not attempt to pedantically litigate in the comments whether some US action constitutes "active military operations".
- If there's doubt as to whether it does, it probably won't count for this question.