PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability4 43%+1.5%Leader of 16 outcomes
Market quality
64 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.2K
Liquidity
$311.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.1% / 0.3%
Spread
200.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.3%
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Nov 13, 25, 3:55 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
443%
Volume trend
$2.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
- Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
- For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
- Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
- Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.