PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
September 30 13%-1.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$291.6
Liquidity
$17.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 24, 26, 11:10 PM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel military action against Lebanon on?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Beirut by which date?
PolymarketIsrael military action against Yemen by which date?
PolymarketWill Trump annex/take military action against Brazil by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Syria by the specified date, 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Syria.
- An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
- A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
- The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.