PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 5%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.9K
Liquidity
$123.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
238
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Apr 16, 26, 11:52 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
PolymarketIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
PolymarketJoseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?
PolymarketWill nonstop U.S.–Lebanon passenger flights resume?
KalshiWill Lebanon survive the current conflict in the middle east?
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue.
- However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
- The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Open markets
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+5 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
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- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
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+7 more outcomes
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- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
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- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31 at 5% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date? resolve?
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Israel withdraws from Lebanon by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.