US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by which date?
0.5 pts (24h)CommoditiesOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 5%+0.5ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$19K
Liquidity
$162.5K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
194
7d Change
+0.5 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 9:53 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by the named outcome, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere.
- Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
- Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
- A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
