US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
0.4% (24h)CommoditiesOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 13%-1.0%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$23.6K
Liquidity
$147.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
0.7% / 0.9%
Spread
28.6%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.1%
Market data
Updated 20 minutes ago
Mar 31, 26, 9:53 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3113%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 13% | — | $23.6K | $147.7K | 20 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets93% match · auto | — | 12% | — | — | — | 37 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]
5mo
12%
2.2%
0%
Community forecast9 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere.
- Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
- Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
- A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$18.0k86.2%POLYMARKETUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — Noschizohedgehog4d ago
POLYMARKETUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — Noschizohedgehog4d ago$3.3k88.0%POLYMARKETUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — NoMEPP7d ago
POLYMARKETUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — NoMEPP7d ago$2.9k89.0%POLYMARKETUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — NoScoofy-Bubik9d ago
POLYMARKETUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? — NoScoofy-Bubik9d agoVolume trend
$23.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere.
- Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
- Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
- A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement.