Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by end of 2026
CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 15, 2026, 12:57 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 92%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 25, 26, 1:53 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...? [Polymarket]
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves according to https://polymarket.com/event/iran-agrees-to-surrender-enriched-uranium-stockpile-by
- Resolution criteria from Polymarket
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
