Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 8, 2026, 10:35 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 15.4%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleMay 25, 26, 1:53 AMJan 1, 27, 5:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes15%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall85% match · verified | Medium | 14% | — | $6K | $306.6K | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 85% | — | — | — | 3 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
0.1%5mo
14%
9%
+0.8%4%
+4 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$17.3M
24h Vol$6K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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KALSHI
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MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.