FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataCurrent implied probability
December 31 16%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 16%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquidityTraders
22
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Updated 2 minutes ago
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
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Manifold MarketsRules
This event groups markets by the time period in which Iran formally agrees to end all uranium enrichment activities.
- The alternative whose end date contains the date of the agreement will be the winning outcome. "Agreement" is defined as Iran signing, ratifying, or formally accepting a binding international agreement (bilateral with the US or multilateral) that commits Iran to permanently cease all uranium enrichment.
- A non-binding statement of intent, a temporary pause, or a unilateral Iranian declaration without a corresponding signed agreement does not qualify.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements by the governments of Iran and the United States, or by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), or concordant reporting by reliable news outlets chosen at Futuur’s discretion confirming that a binding agreement has been signed.
- The date of the agreement is the date it is signed or formally accepted, not the date enrichment physically stops.
