Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastUS PoliticsGeopolitics4mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Aug 31, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31 7%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$31.1K
Liquidity
$191.9K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
218
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Mar 27, 26, 12:15 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
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Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
- To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
