Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
0.1% (24h)CommoditiesOne-OffMiddle EastGeopolitics5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 14%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.2K
Liquidity
$307.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 1.1%
Spread
10.0%
Wide spread7d Change
-0.5%
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Mar 27, 26, 12:15 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3114%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 14% | — | $9.2K | $307.1K | 10 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets85% match · verified | — | 85% | — | — | — | 3 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by end of 2026
5mo
15.4%
84.6%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
- To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.7k85.1%Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? — Nosiick4d ago
$3.9k81.0%Nodenizz12d ago
Volume trend
$9.2kJul 211d of dataJul 12
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
- An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
- To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
- Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.