Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDecember 31 4%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
13
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 20, 26, 7:03 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere.
- Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
- Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.