Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 18, 2026, 11:24 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastMay 31 0%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 days ago
StaleMay 20, 26, 7:03 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
June 302%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall93% match · auto | Medium | 12% | — | $17.3K | $215.1K | 7 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 12% | — | — | — | 23 days ago |
Also available on Polymarket
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
1.0%5mo
+1.0%12%
+2.0%7%
1%
+4 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$28.4M
24h Vol$17.3K
POLYMARKETRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere.
- Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
- Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere.
- Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify.
- Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure.