Will the Trump administration sign a bilateral agreement to acquire land in Greenland by the end of 2026?
Corporate ActionsTechOne-OffEuropePoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.3%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 26, 11:45 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Trump administration signs a bilateral agreement with Denmark and/or Greenland that grants the United States land or territorial control in Greenland by December 31, 2026.
- The agreement must be formally signed and publicly announced.
- As of late January 2026, no formal agreement has been signed, though negotiations are ongoing.
- For resolution purposes, the agreement must involve actual transfer of land rights or sovereignty (even if limited to specific parcels), not merely expanded military access or defense cooperation under existing frameworks.
- Danish officials have stated there have been no direct discussions about granting the U.S. sovereign parcels of land.