PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 24%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$16.8K
Liquidity
$28.2K
High liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spread7d Change
+4.5%
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Jan 30, 26, 12:03 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3124%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketThis pageBest overall | Medium | 24% | — | $16.8K | $28.2K | 21 minutes ago | |
 Kalshi90% match · verified | Medium | 69% | — | $674.9 | $219.4K | 21 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Kalshi
When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
7mo
69%
+6.0%51%
-7.0%43%
+10 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$394.3K
24h Vol$674.9
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
- Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company.
- A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights).
- Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$16.8kJul 220d of dataJul 21
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
- Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company.
- A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights).
- Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.