Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
2.5 pts (24h)TechOne-OffSpaceCorporate Actions1y
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31, · —
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Stored reference
December 31, 67%Leader of 7 outcomes
December 31, 67%Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$22.3K
Liquidity
$94.2K
High liquidityOpen interest
$142K
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31,Spread
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Comments
31
7d Change
+8.5 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 30, 26, 12:03 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
June 30Lost
September 30, 2026Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · December 31,
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Tesla and SpaceX officially announce a merger, or a formal merger process, by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027
Manifold MarketsT-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
PolymarketWill Project Bromo (the Airbus–Leonardo–Thales space merger) be completed by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX & Tesla Merger before 2028
Manifold MarketsMPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.
- Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company.
- A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights).
- Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — When will Tesla and SpaceX merge? · Before 2028 80%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — When will SpaceX and Tesla merge? · Before 2030 85%
