Current implied probability
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 56%Leader of 14 outcomes
Market quality
32 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$392.6
Liquidity
$722.9
Low liquiditySpread
57.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Sep 9, 26, 7:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWill an AI make a new breakthrough on the hardest math problems, as defined by Epoch AI, by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
PolymarketWill an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI solve any important mathematical conjecture before January 1st, 2030?
Manifold MarketsSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify.
- The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers.
- An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify.
- No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt55.9%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.5%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.7M
- 24h Vol
- $118.7K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $51.6K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which math problems will AI solve in 2026??
- Polymarket prices Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer at 56% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? resolve?
- Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which math problems will AI solve in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.