Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 9:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Hodge Conjecture · —
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Stored reference
Hodge Conjecture 35%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Hodge Conjecture 35%Market quality
61 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$146.7
Liquidity
$62.5K
High liquidityOpen interest
$34.8K
Bid / Ask
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Hodge ConjectureSpread
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Comments
1
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 9, 26, 7:43 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · Hodge Conjecture
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
Manifold MarketsMillennium: Prize Problem solution published before 2028 and verified?
Manifold MarketsWhich Millennium prize problem will be solved next? (after Navier-Stokes)
Manifold MarketsWill every Millennium Prize problem be solved before 2028
Manifold MarketsHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "the named outcome".
- If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order.
- The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the the named outcome Conjecture, the the named outcome, the named outcome, the the named outcome, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/).
- Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.
- A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify.
