Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97.5%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Aug 8, 26, 7:13 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Codename: MILLPROB
- Resolves YES if a complete claimed solution or disproof of one of the six unsolved Millennium Prize Problems is made public before January 1, 2028 and verified by June 30, 2028.
- Verification requires either a complete, independently reproduced machine-checkable proof, or clear acceptance by multiple recognized specialists with no credible unresolved objection after at least 90 days.
- Clay Mathematics Institute recognition is sufficient but not required.
- A counterexample counts only if it resolves the official problem as stated.
- Keep an eye on mnx.fi 👀
