Current implied probability
At least 440 89%+1.0%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.3
Liquidity
$45.5
Low liquidityBid / Ask
80.0% / 89.0%
Spread
11.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jul 2, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
At least 44089%
Related Markets
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$4.3K2: 63%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Highest monthly CO2 level at Mauna Loa in first half of 2026
$980432 or less: 0.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$43.1Yes: 25%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will El Niño conditions be declared present?
$1.4Before Jul 1, 2026: 70%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
$0.1Yes: 77%KALSHI
KALSHI
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
$0Yes: 8%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Rules
If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 440 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 445 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 450 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 455 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is at least 460 before Jan 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.