KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94%
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$164.3
Liquidity
$302.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
6.4% / 8.4%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 10, 25, 3:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How much small modular nuclear reactor (SMR) capacity in US by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill any data center in the United States be powered by a nuclear reactor by Nov 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich DoE Reactor Pilot Program reactors will achieve criticality by 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill global carbon dioxide emissions exceed 40,000 million metric tons in 2027?
ForecastExWill nuclear energy generate more than 1,880 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in California during December 2026?
ForecastExWill nuclear energy generate more than 1,600 thousand megawatt-hours of electricity in California during June 2027?
ForecastExRules
If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a new combined license authorizing the construction and operations of a new nuclear nuclear power facility, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+1.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-41.6pt48%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $265.8K
- 24h Vol
- $109.9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.2pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.9K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $9.3K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt48%
- Above 1-2.0pt18%
- Above 2-6.0pt8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027??
- Kalshi prices No at 94% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? resolve?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has issued a new combined license authorizing the construction and operations of a new nuclear nuclear power facility, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.