Current implied probability
2 53.9%-0.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$112.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
44.0% / 45.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+3.5 pts
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 10:46 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
255%
Large trades
$1.5k61.8%
POLYMARKETWill 2026 be the hottest year on record? — NoOrion967d ago
POLYMARKETWill 2026 be the hottest year on record? — NoOrion967d agoVolume trend
$2.9kJul 226d of dataJul 27
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This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
- Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
- If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
- This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.