Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 5:43 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
1 · —
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Stored reference
1 90.9%Leader of 6 outcomes
1 90.9%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.4K
Liquidity
$242.4K
High liquidityOpen interest
$264K
Bid / Ask
— / —
1Spread
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Comments
32
7d Change
+5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleNov 12, 25, 10:46 PM UTCMar 2, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · 1
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
PolymarketWhere will October 2026 rank among the warmest Octobers on record (Copernicus ERA5)?
Manifold MarketsNatural Disaster in 2026?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2037?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
- Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
- This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.