Current implied probability
1 76%-0.5ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
85 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$8.7K
Liquidity
$241.8K
High liquiditySpread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
27
7d Change
-0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Nov 12, 25, 10:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Where will 2026 rank among the highest U.S. domestic box office years on record?
PolymarketThis Sep 2026 is the hottest September ever?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
- Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
- This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt).
- If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
