Current implied probability
Yes 34%+1.1%
Market quality
73 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$12.2K
Liquidity
$102.9K
High liquidityBid / Ask
31.1% / 34.0%
Spread
9.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Nov 9, 25, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes34%
Large trades
$1.2k71.5%
KALSHINo20h ago
KALSHINo20h agoVolume trend
$12.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
Related Markets
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
$1.8KYes: 31%KALSHI
KALSHI
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$795.2Yes: 22%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
$582.62: 55%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
$847.95-6: 67%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
$581.1Above 2: 41%KALSHI
KALSHI
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
$203.6Oil: 62%KALSHI
KALSHIActive in these topics
Related News
Alphabet’s $1 billion SpaceX gamble balloons into a $94 billion stakeCrypto News
Galaxy Digital opens $5M fund for Bitcoin quantum security researchCrypto News
Claude's Fable 5 just solved an 87-year-old math problem, and it matters for bitcoinCoindeskSpaceX stock sinks to post-IPO low after Starship launch abortCrypto News
Google DeepMind, Isomorphic Labs Unveil AI-Powered Bioresilience PlanBlockchain.News
NVIDIA's Ising Decoder Slashes Color Code Errors 300xBlockchain.NewsRules
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027