KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before 2030 42%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$664.8
Liquidity
$179.4K
High liquiditySpread
0.8 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 5, 24, 9:00 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who lands on the Moon next?
Manifold MarketsHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:NASA
- If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.5pt89.9%
- OpenAI-1.6pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $152.8K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No51.5%
- Yes48.5%
- Total Vol
- $120.5K
- 24h Vol
- $32.5K
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-1.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+2.2pt18.6%
- Google-1.4pt5.9%
+18 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-11.0pt79%
- Above 9-50.0pt24%
- Above 10-20.0pt14%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,47%
- June 30,41%
- February 28,27%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.2M
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 202764.8%
- 202622.2%
- September 30, 202613%
- Total Vol
- $13.6K
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- SpaceX Starship 14th launch?
- Pro Football Championship Halftime Show: Performers
- Two SpaceX Starships dock together by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for NASA lands on the moon??
- Kalshi prices Before 2030 at 42% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does NASA lands on the moon? resolve?
- NASA lands on the moon? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is NASA lands on the moon? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If an announcement indicates that a manned NASA mission landed on the Moon after Issuance and by December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.