Selected book midpoint
OpenAI · —
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Stored reference
OpenAI 83%Leader of 16 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
OpenAI 83%Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$996.8
Liquidity
$20.7K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$4.1K
Bid / Ask
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OpenAISpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 12, 26, 11:57 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 4:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · OpenAI
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
- Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
- AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time.
- If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view.
- If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard.