KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Claude 69.3%+6.2ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
≤89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$76.9K
Liquidity
$6.4M
High liquiditySpread
1.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jan 1, 26, 3:00 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Best AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiBest AI this week
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of October?
PolymarketWill ChatGPT be the best AI at the end of December 2026?
ForecastExRules
If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls)
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during The Ingraham Angle?
- Tariff99%
- AI / Artificial Intelligence99%
- Fake News99%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $109.6K
- 24h Vol
- $109.4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt91%
- December 15,+4.5pt90%
- November 30,+5.5pt89%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+8.0pt89.4%
- Muse+1.0pt2.9%
- ChatGPT-9.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $483K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-64.6pt3%
- 1490+-39.9pt1%
- 1500+-25.4pt1%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-3.5pt85%
- 2026+5.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026-3.0pt39%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Best AI at the end of 2026??
- Kalshi prices Claude at 69% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does Best AI at the end of 2026? resolve?
- Best AI at the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Best AI at the end of 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.