KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityClaude 62.1%-1.2ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$84.3K
Liquidity
$4.8M
High liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 4.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Jul 16, 26, 10:00 PMDec 31, 26, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Kimi4%
Compare venues· Anthropic
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 64% | -4pt | $84.3K | $4.8M | 18 minutes ago | |
 Polymarket66% match · linked | High | 68% | 0pt | $12.2K | $551.9K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Gemini93% match · auto | Medium | 71% | +3pt | $344 | $0 | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur66% match · linked | Low | 67% | -1pt | $0 | $15.8K | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Gemini
Best AI at the end of 2026?
5mo
67.5%
16.8%
10.1%
+2 more outcomes
57 • Medium qualityTight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$43.6K
24h Vol$344
GEMINIAlso available on Polymarket
Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
4.0 pts5mo
+4.0pt68%
+1.0pt12%
-0.5pt9%
+23 more outcomes
87 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$412.6K
24h Vol$12.2K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Futuur
Which company will have the best AI model at the end of 2026?
5mo
66.3%
16.8%
9.9%
+3 more outcomes
41 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$274.5
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$3.6k89.8%KALSHIGemini — No2d ago
KALSHIGemini — No2d ago$1.4k97.9%KALSHIMuse Spark — No6d ago
KALSHIMuse Spark — No6d ago$1.3k86.5%KALSHIChatGPT — No10d ago
KALSHIChatGPT — No10d ago$1.3k87.3%KALSHIGemini — No14d ago
KALSHIGemini — No14d ago$1.2k92.6%KALSHIGrok — No20d ago
KALSHIGrok — No20d agoVolume trend
$84.3kJul 228d of dataJul 29
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If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.