KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 95 25%Market line of 7 lines
Above 95 25%Market quality
48 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$212.2
Open interest
$1.1K
Low open interestSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTCNov 8, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 95 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 7th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 7th. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means ChatGPT App Downloads was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 95
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 95 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 100
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 100 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 105
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 105 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 115
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 115 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 110
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 110 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 130
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 130 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 80
- If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App Downloads (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 80 , then the market resolves to Yes.
