Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 92.1%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 10:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Claude (by Anthropic) reaches or exceeds ChatGPT's monthly active users at any point before December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on publicly reported figures from Anthropic and OpenAI, or credible third-party sources such as Reuters, Bloomberg, or The Verge.
- As of April 2026, ChatGPT has ~900M weekly active users vs Claude's ~18.9M monthly active users.
