Gemini Carbon: Text Arena Debut?
AI
PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 1:06 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
1520+ 98%Leader of 5 outcomes
1520+ 98%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$22.6K
Liquidity
$10.2K
Medium liquidityOpen interest
$9.7K
Spread
1.2 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 26, 9:51 PM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
1520+98%
1530+96%
1540+95%
1560+2%
1550+1%
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PolymarketRules
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.