KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Claude · —
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Stored price
Claude 18.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Claude 18.5%Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$227.9
Open interest
$103.6K
High open interestBid / Ask
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ClaudeSpread
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Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Feb 10, 26, 1:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Claude
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on October 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsSecond-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of November?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of December?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
Rules for each outcome
- Claude
- If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Gemini
- If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- ChatGPT
- If a model by OpenAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Qwen
- If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Grok
- If a model by xAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Kimi
- If a model by Moonshot AI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Ernie
- If a model by Baidu is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Other
- If a model by Other is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.